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Monza vs Sassuolo

Fri 18 Sept, 18:45

FT 2-1

🎯 AI Prediction

LOW 38%

Sassuolo

Predicted Winner

3-4

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

📊

Actual result: 2-1

Predicted: 3-4 — Winner: Incorrect

🔑 Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 2.96 - 3.33

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Monza last 5 at home: 2W-1D-2L (scored 13, conceded 12)

6 Sassuolo last 4 away: 0W-1D-3L (scored 5, conceded 9)

7 H2H (5): Monza lead 3-0 (2D), avg 2.2 goals, BTTS 60%

8 Monza without: P. Ciurria, M. Pessina (+6 more)

9 Sassuolo without: D. Boloca, F. Cande (+14 more)

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Sassuolo with an estimated 38% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.96-3.33 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward Monza, while the blended pick still favours Sassuolo, so treat this one with extra caution. Monza lead the head-to-head 3-0 (with 2 draws), averaging 2.2 goals per game with both teams scoring in 60% of meetings. Monza have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 13, conceding 12), while Sassuolo have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 5, conceding 9). Monza without: P. Ciurria, M. Pessina (+6 more); Sassuolo without: D. Boloca, F. Cande (+14 more).