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Bayern München vs Union Berlin

Fri 18 Sept, 18:30

FT 7-0

🎯 AI Prediction

HIGH 76%

Bayern München

Predicted Winner

10-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

📊

Actual result: 7-0

Predicted: 10-0 — Winner: Correct!

🔑 Key Factors

1 Model below market fair probability by 15pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 10.39 - 0.00

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Bayern München last 4 at home: 4W-0D-0L (scored 15, conceded 3)

6 Union Berlin last 5 away: 1W-1D-3L (scored 7, conceded 11)

7 H2H (10): Bayern München lead 7-0 (3D), avg 3.4 goals, BTTS 50%

8 Bayern München without: T. Buchmann, T. Buchmann

9 Union Berlin without: O. Burke, M. Friedrich (+12 more)

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Bayern München with an estimated 76% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (10.39-0.00 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The market is more confident in Bayern München than the model is — the blend sits 15 points below the market's fair price, making this a lower-conviction pick. Bayern München lead the head-to-head 7-0 (with 3 draws), averaging 3.4 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Bayern München have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 4 at home (scoring 15, conceding 3), while Union Berlin have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 11). Bayern München without: T. Buchmann, T. Buchmann; Union Berlin without: O. Burke, M. Friedrich (+12 more).