⚽

Frosinone vs Como

Sun 20 Sept, 13:00

🎯 AI Prediction

MEDIUM 58%

Como

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.01 - 2.36

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Frosinone last 5 at home: 2W-1D-2L (scored 10, conceded 8)

6 Como last 5 away: 2W-3D-0L (scored 8, conceded 4)

7 H2H (5): Frosinone lead 4-1 (0D), avg 2.4 goals, BTTS 20%

8 Frosinone without: F. Grillitsch, F. Grillitsch

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Como with an estimated 58% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.01-2.36 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward Frosinone, while the blended pick still favours Como, so treat this one with extra caution. Frosinone lead the head-to-head 4-1 (with 0 draws), averaging 2.4 goals per game with both teams scoring in 20% of meetings. Frosinone have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 10, conceding 8), while Como have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 8, conceding 4). Frosinone without: F. Grillitsch, F. Grillitsch.