⚽

Fiorentina vs Napoli

Sun 20 Sept, 10:30

🎯 AI Prediction

MEDIUM 60%

Napoli

Predicted Winner

1-3

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 Model above market fair probability by 18pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.51 - 3.38

4 Fiorentina last 5 at home: 2W-1D-2L (scored 9, conceded 7)

5 Napoli last 5: 2W-0D-3L (scored 6, conceded 6)

6 H2H (10): Napoli lead 6-2 (2D), avg 3.0 goals, BTTS 60%

7 Fiorentina without: F. Parisi, R. Sottil (+2 more)

8 Napoli without: Alisson Santos, A. Buongiorno (+12 more)

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Napoli with an estimated 60% win probability, based on market odds and a Poisson xG model (0.51-3.38 goals). The model sees more value here than the market does — its estimate for Napoli runs 18 points above the market's fair price. Napoli lead the head-to-head 6-2 (with 2 draws), averaging 3.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 60% of meetings. Fiorentina have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 9, conceding 7), while Napoli have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 (scoring 6, conceding 6). Fiorentina without: F. Parisi, R. Sottil (+2 more); Napoli without: Alisson Santos, A. Buongiorno (+12 more).