NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb

Sun 8 Nov, 17:00

FT 1-3

AI Prediction

LOW 42%

Dinamo Zagreb

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-3

Predicted: 1-2. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.73 - 0.74

4 NK Varazdin last 4 at home: 0W-3D-1L (scored 2, conceded 3)

5 Dinamo Zagreb last 5 away: 3W-0D-2L (scored 12, conceded 4)

6 H2H (10): Dinamo Zagreb lead 8-0 (2D), avg 2.9 goals, BTTS 60%

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Dinamo Zagreb with an estimated 42% win probability, based on market odds and a Poisson xG model (1.73-0.74 goals). Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward NK Varazdin, while the blended pick still favours Dinamo Zagreb, so treat this one with extra caution. Dinamo Zagreb lead the head-to-head 8-0 (with 2 draws), averaging 2.9 goals per game with both teams scoring in 60% of meetings. NK Varazdin have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 4 at home (scoring 2, conceding 3), while Dinamo Zagreb have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 12, conceding 4).