NK Osijek vs HNK Hajduk Split

Sun 8 Nov, 14:00

FT 0-1

AI Prediction

LOW 43%

HNK Hajduk Split

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 0-1

Predicted: 1-2. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.73 - 1.36

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 NK Osijek last 5 at home: 1W-2D-2L (scored 7, conceded 8)

6 HNK Hajduk Split last 5 away: 2W-1D-2L (scored 5, conceded 6)

7 H2H (10): HNK Hajduk Split lead 6-3 (1D), avg 2.5 goals, BTTS 20%

Detailed Analysis

The model favours HNK Hajduk Split with an estimated 43% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.73-1.36 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward NK Osijek, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours HNK Hajduk Split, so treat this one with extra caution. HNK Hajduk Split lead the head-to-head 6-3 (with 1 draw), averaging 2.5 goals per game with both teams scoring in 20% of meetings. NK Osijek have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 7, conceding 8), while HNK Hajduk Split have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 5, conceding 6).