Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka

Sat 7 Nov, 17:00

FT 3-1

AI Prediction

LOW 40%

Istra 1961

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 3-1

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 2.24 - 0.93

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 H2H (10): HNK Rijeka lead 5-3 (2D), avg 1.9 goals, BTTS 20%

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Istra 1961 with an estimated 40% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.24-0.93 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward HNK Rijeka, while the blended pick still favours Istra 1961, so treat this one with extra caution. HNK Rijeka lead the head-to-head 5-3 (with 2 draws), averaging 1.9 goals per game with both teams scoring in 20% of meetings.