HNK Gorica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

Sat 24 Oct, 13:00

AI Prediction

LOW 36%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

Predicted Winner

0-1

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market, poisson, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.20 - 1.20

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 HNK Gorica last 4 at home: 0W-3D-1L (scored 6, conceded 7)

6 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb last 5 away: 1W-0D-4L (scored 6, conceded 11)

7 H2H (10): NK Lokomotiva Zagreb lead 7-2 (1D), avg 3.2 goals, BTTS 50%

Detailed Analysis

The model favours NK Lokomotiva Zagreb with an estimated 36% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.20-1.20 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward HNK Gorica, the Poisson model leans toward HNK Gorica, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, so treat this one with extra caution. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb lead the head-to-head 7-2 (with 1 draw), averaging 3.2 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. HNK Gorica have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 4 at home (scoring 6, conceding 7), while NK Lokomotiva Zagreb have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 6, conceding 11).