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HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin

Mon 14 Sept, 16:00

🎯 AI Prediction

MEDIUM 56%

NK Varazdin

Predicted Winner

0-2

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 Model above market fair probability by 12pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.42 - 2.08

4 HNK Gorica last 5 at home: 1W-1D-3L (scored 2, conceded 6)

5 NK Varazdin last 4 away: 2W-0D-2L (scored 9, conceded 6)

6 H2H (10): NK Varazdin lead 3-1 (6D), avg 2.2 goals, BTTS 80%

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours NK Varazdin with an estimated 56% win probability, based on market odds and a Poisson xG model (0.42-2.08 goals). The model sees more value here than the market does — its estimate for NK Varazdin runs 12 points above the market's fair price. NK Varazdin lead the head-to-head 3-1 (with 6 draws), averaging 2.2 goals per game with both teams scoring in 80% of meetings. HNK Gorica have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 at home (scoring 2, conceding 6), while NK Varazdin have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 9, conceding 6).