Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Qatar

Bosnia & Herzegovina favored at 1.41 (66% fair). Both teams in poor form (1pt each, recent losses), but Bosnia's home record and BTTS rate (90% vs Qatar's 29%) diverge sharply. Qatar concedes 1.9/match, scores only 0.3/match—severe attacking deficit. Bosnia averages 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded; Qatar's two red-card absences (Homam Ahmed, Assim Madibo) further weaken already-fragile defense. Market prices Over 2.5 at 60% fair, but Qatar's 71% failed-to-score rate and Bosnia's 10% clean-sheet rate suggest Under 2.5 has edge. BTTS at 58% odds conflicts with Qatar's 29% BTTS rate; Bosnia likely wins 2-0 or 2-1, not a high-scoring draw.

Bosnia 66% fair probability; Qatar's 0.3 goals/match and defensive absences make away win highly unlikely.

Qatar's 71% failed-to-score rate and 29% BTTS rate dominate; Bosnia likely keeps clean sheet or wins 2-0.

Market prices Over at 60% fair, but Qatar's 0.3 goals/match and Bosnia's 40% O2.5 rate suggest Under 2.5 has 5-7pt edge.

Home/Draw at 91.7% fair is fair value; Qatar's form too weak to justify 13.4% away win probability.

At 2.1 odds (47.6%), Home -1.5 reflects 2-0 or 2-1 wins; Qatar's 0.3 goals/match makes this likely.

Bosnia averages 1.5 scored; Qatar 0.3. Home Over 1.5 at 70.4% fair is reasonable; Away Under 0.5 at 44.4% has edge.

Bosnia avg 8.7 corners (last 3), Qatar 7; combined ~15.7 suggests line at 9.5 is tight; slight Under lean.

Bosnia 3.3 cards/match, Qatar 2; combined 5.3 suggests Over 4.5 has modest edge, but World Cup discipline varies.