Morocco vs Haiti

Morocco is a clear favorite: 4pts vs Haiti's 0pts, WD form vs LL streak, 2.0 avg goals scored vs Haiti's 1.2, 60% clean sheet rate vs Haiti's 40%. Odds (79% home fair) understate the gap slightly given Haiti's 0 goals in last 2 matches and Morocco's defensive solidity (0.4 GA avg). Poisson unavailable but form-weighted xG strongly favors home. Haiti's BTTS rate (20%) and FTS rate (40%) suggest low attacking threat. Under 2.5 leans slightly over due to Haiti's defensive fragility offsetting Morocco's restraint, but Morocco's 40% O2.5 rate and clean sheet dominance favor a controlled 2-0 or 1-0 win. No H2H data, but strength gap (4pts, form gap, defensive records) is decisive.

4-point gap, form advantage (WD vs LL), defensive solidity (0.4 GA vs 1.1), attacking output (2.0 vs 1.2) strongly favor Morocco; odds 79% fair but data supports confidence.

Haiti 20% BTTS rate, 0 goals in last 2 matches, 40% FTS rate; Morocco 60% CS rate; low probability both teams score.

Morocco 40% O2.5 rate, 60% CS rate, 0.4 GA avg suggests controlled performance; Haiti's weak attack (1.2 avg, 0 goals last 2) supports Under; market 61.6% Over is slightly overpriced.

Morocco win or draw highly probable (94% combined fair); Haiti 6% away win is negligible; 1X offers safety with strong odds.

Morocco expected to win by 1-2 goals given form, defensive record, and Haiti's attacking weakness; -1.5 line (65.4% odds) aligns with predicted 2-0 or 1-0 outcome.

Morocco 2.0 avg scored, 80% odds Over 1.5 (strong); Haiti 1.2 avg, 0 goals last 2 matches, 93.5% odds Under 1.5 (very strong).

No corner data available; one-sided World Cup matches trend ~9-10 corners; market 56.5% Under suggests slight lean, but uncertainty is high without recent stats.

World Cup baseline ~4-5 cards; no recent discipline data; Morocco 0.5 yellow/match suggests controlled play; Haiti likely frustrated but not reckless; slight Under lean.