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Estonia vs Iceland

Tue 6 Oct, 18:45

🎯 AI Prediction

MEDIUM 56%

Iceland

Predicted Winner

0-1

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.00 - 0.00

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Estonia last 4 at home: 3W-1D-0L (scored 4, conceded 1)

6 Iceland last 5 away: 1W-2D-2L (scored 6, conceded 7)

7 H2H (2): even, 2D, avg 2.0 goals, BTTS 100%

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Iceland with an estimated 56% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.00-0.00 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Iceland, so treat this one with extra caution. Estonia have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 4 at home (scoring 4, conceding 1), while Iceland have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 6, conceding 7). All 2 of their last meetings have ended in a draw, averaging 2.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 100% of meetings.