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Azerbaijan vs Lithuania

Sun 4 Oct, 13:00

🎯 AI Prediction

LOW 35%

Draw

Predicted Winner

0-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.00 - 0.00

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Azerbaijan last 5 at home: 2W-2D-1L (scored 4, conceded 4)

6 Lithuania last 4 away: 2W-0D-2L (scored 4, conceded 5)

7 H2H (2): even, 2D, avg 1.0 goals, BTTS 50%

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Draw with an estimated 35% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.00-0.00 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Azerbaijan, while the blended pick still favours Draw, so treat this one with extra caution. Azerbaijan have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 4, conceding 4), while Lithuania have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 4, conceding 5). All 2 of their last meetings have ended in a draw, averaging 1.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings.