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Denmark vs Portugal

Thu 1 Oct, 18:45

🎯 AI Prediction

LOW 47%

Portugal

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.67 - 0.00

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Denmark last 5 at home: 4W-1D-0L (scored 13, conceded 4)

6 Portugal last 3 away: 2W-1D-0L (scored 4, conceded 1)

7 H2H (3): Portugal lead 2-1 (0D), avg 4.3 goals, BTTS 67%

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Portugal with an estimated 47% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.67-0.00 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Portugal, so treat this one with extra caution. Denmark have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 13, conceding 4), while Portugal have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 3 away from home (scoring 4, conceding 1). Portugal lead the head-to-head 2-1 (with 0 draws), averaging 4.3 goals per game with both teams scoring in 67% of meetings.