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Azerbaijan vs Liechtenstein

Thu 1 Oct, 16:00

🎯 AI Prediction

HIGH 73%

Azerbaijan

Predicted Winner

3-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 Model below market fair probability by 11pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Azerbaijan last 5 at home: 3W-1D-1L (scored 10, conceded 5)

5 Liechtenstein last 5 away: 1W-0D-4L (scored 2, conceded 15)

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Azerbaijan with an estimated 73% win probability, based on market odds and API-Football's statistical model. The market is more confident in Azerbaijan than the model is — the blend sits 11 points below the market's fair price, making this a lower-conviction pick. Azerbaijan have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 10, conceding 5), while Liechtenstein have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 2, conceding 15).