⚽

Sweden vs Poland

Mon 28 Sept, 18:45

FT 3-1

🎯 AI Prediction

LOW 44%

Sweden

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

📊

Actual result: 3-1

Predicted: 2-1 — Winner: Correct!

🔑 Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

3 Sweden last 5 at home: 3W-2D-0L (scored 13, conceded 7)

4 H2H (3): Sweden lead 2-1 (0D), avg 4.0 goals, BTTS 67%

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Sweden with an estimated 44% win probability, based on market odds and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Sweden have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 13, conceding 7). Sweden lead the head-to-head 2-1 (with 0 draws), averaging 4.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 67% of meetings.