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Türkiye vs Italy

Mon 28 Sept, 18:45

FT 1-4

🎯 AI Prediction

LOW 39%

Italy

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

📊

Actual result: 1-4

Predicted: 1-2 — Winner: Correct!

🔑 Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Türkiye last 5 at home: 3W-0D-2L (scored 8, conceded 4)

5 Italy last 5 away: 4W-1D-0L (scored 8, conceded 2)

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Italy with an estimated 39% win probability, based on market odds and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Italy, so treat this one with extra caution. Türkiye have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 8, conceding 4), while Italy have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 8, conceding 2).