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Georgia vs Ukraine

Mon 28 Sept, 16:00

FT 0-0

🎯 AI Prediction

LOW 39%

Ukraine

Predicted Winner

0-1

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

📊

Actual result: 0-0

Predicted: 0-1 — Winner: Incorrect

🔑 Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.00 - 0.84

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Georgia last 5 at home: 1W-2D-2L (scored 5, conceded 8)

6 Ukraine last 5 away: 3W-0D-2L (scored 9, conceded 9)

7 H2H (2): Ukraine lead 1-0 (1D), avg 1.5 goals, BTTS 50%

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Ukraine with an estimated 39% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.00-0.84 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Georgia, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Ukraine, so treat this one with extra caution. Georgia have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 5, conceding 8), while Ukraine have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 9, conceding 9). Ukraine lead the head-to-head 1-0 (with 1 draw), averaging 1.5 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings.