Egypt vs Iran

Egypt favored at 2.46 (40.7% implied) vs Iran at 3.75 (26.7%). Recent form: Egypt W1 (beat NZ 3-1, drew Belgium 1-1), Iran D2 (0-0 vs Belgium, 2-2 vs NZ). Egypt averages 1.6 goals scored, 0.8 conceded; Iran 1.7 scored, 0.6 conceded. Iran's defensive strength (67% CS rate, only 0.6 conceded/match) is notable but Egypt's attacking momentum (W1 streak, 1.6 avg scored) edges it. BTTS at 47.6% (Da) reflects both teams' scoring capability—Egypt 50% BTTS rate, Iran 33% but recent form shows Iran scoring. Under 2.5 is heavily backed (69.4% implied), suggesting tight contest. Home advantage + Egypt's form + full squad support home win, but Iran's defense keeps it low-scoring. Corners: Egypt avg 9, Iran 5.5 (combined ~7.25 recent); line 8.5 leans under.

Egypt W1 form, home advantage, and attacking output (1.6/match) edge Iran's D2 streak despite Iran's defensive strength.

Egypt 50% BTTS rate and recent scoring form (beat NZ 3-1) vs Iran 33% but recent 2-2 draw shows both-score potential; combined ~40% fair probability.

Market 69.4% Under heavily reflects Iran's defensive dominance (0.6 conceded/match) and both teams' recent low-scoring draws; expected goals likely 2.0–2.3.

Home/Draw at 80% (1.25) captures Egypt's slight edge and draw probability (~37% fair); strong value over pure home bet.

Egypt -0.5 (41.7% implied) is fair given form and home advantage; avoids heavy -1 line (19% implied) where Iran's defense provides cover.

Egypt's 1.6 avg goals and W1 streak support Over 1.5 (35.7% implied); Iran's 0.6 conceded/match and recent 0-0, 2-2 draws support Away Under 1.5 (82% implied).

Egypt avg 9 corners, Iran 5.5; combined ~7.25 recent average suggests Under 8.5 (58.8% implied) has slight edge over Over (48.8%).

Egypt avg 4.3 cards/match, Iran 2.0; combined ~6.3 suggests Over 4.5 likely, but low data on Iran away cards limits confidence.