New Zealand vs Belgium

Belgium is vastly superior: 20/30 pts vs NZ's 5/30; 2.6 goals/match vs 0.9; 50% clean sheet rate vs 0% for NZ. NZ has lost 4 of last 6 and concedes 1.9/match. Belgium's recent form is DD (not a collapse—both draws were 0-0 and 1-1 vs strong sides). Key injuries (Debast, Doku, Ngoy) are concerning but Belgium's depth and defensive structure remain elite. Odds at 1.18 (79.3% fair) slightly undervalue Belgium's dominance; Poisson and form gap justify 75%+ away win. Under 2.5 is strong (Belgium concedes 0.7/match, NZ scores 0.9).

Belgium's 20/30 pts, 2.6 goals/match, and elite defense vs NZ's 5/30 pts and 0% clean sheet rate justify 75%+ win probability.

Belgium 50% clean sheet rate, NZ 0% clean sheet rate; Belgium concedes only 0.7/match; BTTS unlikely despite 50% recent rate for NZ.

Belgium concedes 0.7/match, NZ scores 0.9/match; combined expected goals ~1.6–1.8; Under 2.5 is strong value.

Draw/Away covers 98% of market probability; Belgium dominance makes draw unlikely; away win is the core thesis.

Belgium's 2.6 goals/match vs NZ's 0.9 suggests 1.7-goal gap; Away -1.5 is the most probable handicap outcome.

Belgium averages 2.6 goals/match; NZ averages 0.9 and scores 0.5 away; Belgium likely to exceed 1.5, NZ likely under 0.5.

Belgium avg 5.5 corners (last 2), NZ avg 7 (last 3); combined ~12–13 suggests line is close; lean under due to Belgium's control.

Belgium avg 4 cards (last 2), NZ avg 1.3 (last 3); combined ~5.3; World Cup intensity and Belgium's discipline history suggest slight over lean.