Jordan vs Algeria

Algeria is the clear favorite despite both teams' recent losses. Algeria's form is superior (22/30 pts vs 14/30), with strong defensive record (0.6 GA/match, 70% CS rate) and better attacking output (2.0 GF/match). Jordan lost 3 straight to elite opposition (Austria, Colombia, Switzerland) and concedes heavily (1.7 GA/match). Odds heavily favor Algeria (60.2% fair), but form data supports this. BTTS likely given Jordan's 60% BTTS rate and Algeria's recent attacking form. Over 2.5 less probable — Algeria's defensive strength and Jordan's poor recent output suggest lower-scoring game. No H2H data, but strength gap is clear.

Algeria's superior recent form (22 vs 14 pts), defensive solidity, and attacking output justify the 60% market probability; Jordan's L3 streak against elite opposition confirms underdog status.

Jordan's 60% BTTS rate and weak defense (1.7 GA/match) suggest Algeria will score; Jordan's 1.6 GF/match and recent attacking displays (vs Nigeria 2-2, Costa Rica 2-2) make a goal likely despite poor form.

Algeria's 70% CS rate and strong defense (0.6 GA/match) suppresses total scoring; league avg 2.80 but both teams' recent profiles suggest 2-3 goals total.

Draw or Away covers 88.5% fair probability; Algeria's form and Jordan's collapse make this the safest play.

Algeria -1 (7.7% odds) is extreme; Away +1 at 40% fair probability is solid value given Algeria's narrow expected edge.

Algeria 2.0 GF/match average suggests Over 1.5 likely (58.8% fair); Jordan Under 1.5 at 84.7% fair reflects their poor recent output and defensive vulnerability.

Jordan avg 6.3, Algeria avg 8.0 corners in last 3 matches; combined ~14-15 expected; Over 9.5 at 50% fair is fair value given Algeria's dominance.

Algeria avg 2.3 cards/match, Jordan 0.3; combined ~2.6 in last 3 — low total. World Cup intensity may elevate; no strong signal.