France vs Iraq

France is a dominant World Cup favorite with 1W-0D-0L record, 3.0 goals/match at home, 80% BTTS rate, and 100% Over 2.5 rate in recent form. Iraq arrives 0-1 with -3 goal differential, 1.1 goals/match, and a 2-match losing streak. Odds heavily favor France (86.9% fair), but the 3-goal gap and Iraq's weak away record (0-4 in recent away games) suggest France covers -2 or -2.5 handicaps more reliably than the 1X2 at 1.07. BTTS at 37.7% is underpriced given France's 80% BTTS rate and Iraq's 50% BTTS rate; both teams likely score. Over 2.5 at 71% fair is fair value given league average 2.80 and France's 2.6 scored/1.0 conceded profile.

France dominant favorite with 86.9% fair probability; Iraq 0-1 with -3 GD and losing streak.

France 80% BTTS rate + Iraq 50% BTTS rate = strong both-teams-score likelihood; market at 37.7% underprices this.

France 100% O2.5 in form, 2.6 goals/match; Iraq 40% O2.5 but concedes 1.3/match; combined expected >2.7.

France win or draw at 1.01 (99%) is near-certain; Iraq has no draws in recent form and 4.2% win probability.

France -2 at 1.70 (58.8%) is better value than 1X2 at 1.07; 3-goal gap and Iraq's weak away record support 2+ goal margin.

France 3.0 goals/match home, 2.6 avg scored; Iraq 1.1 avg scored, 0-4 in recent away games.

France avg 9.4 corners in last 5; Iraq avg 7.5 in last 2; combined ~8.5–9.5, line at 9.5 is near-fair; slight lean over given France dominance.

France 2.6 cards/match, Iraq 2.5 cards/match in recent form; combined ~5.1, suggesting over 4.5 is slight value.