Spalding United vs Alvechurch

Sat 17 Oct, 14:00

FT 2-2

AI Prediction

LOW 49%

Spalding United

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 2-2

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 2.22 - 0.00

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Spalding United last 5 at home: 5W-0D-0L (scored 13, conceded 2)

5 Alvechurch last 4 away: 2W-2D-0L (scored 6, conceded 4)

6 H2H (5): Spalding United lead 3-1 (1D), avg 1.8 goals, BTTS 20%

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Spalding United with an estimated 49% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.22-0.00 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Spalding United lead the head-to-head 3-1 (with 1 draw), averaging 1.8 goals per game with both teams scoring in 20% of meetings. Spalding United have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 13, conceding 2), while Alvechurch have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 6, conceding 4).