Plymouth Parkway vs Chertsey Town

Sat 17 Oct, 14:00

FT 2-0

AI Prediction

LOW 40%

Plymouth Parkway

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 2-0

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.74 - 1.48

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Plymouth Parkway last 5 at home: 4W-0D-1L (scored 8, conceded 5)

6 Chertsey Town last 5 away: 2W-3D-0L (scored 9, conceded 6)

7 H2H (4): Plymouth Parkway lead 3-1 (0D), avg 2.8 goals, BTTS 75%

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Plymouth Parkway with an estimated 40% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.74-1.48 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward Chertsey Town, while the blended pick still favours Plymouth Parkway, so treat this one with extra caution. Plymouth Parkway lead the head-to-head 3-1 (with 0 draws), averaging 2.8 goals per game with both teams scoring in 75% of meetings. Plymouth Parkway have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 8, conceding 5), while Chertsey Town have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 9, conceding 6).