Leiston vs Guiseley AFC

Sat 17 Oct, 14:00

FT 0-3

AI Prediction

LOW 48%

Leiston

Predicted Winner

4-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 0-3

Predicted: 4-1. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 4.44 - 1.11

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Leiston last 4 at home: 2W-0D-2L (scored 8, conceded 6)

6 Guiseley AFC last 5 away: 3W-1D-1L (scored 9, conceded 4)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Leiston with an estimated 48% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (4.44-1.11 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Guiseley AFC, while the blended pick still favours Leiston, so treat this one with extra caution. Leiston have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 4 at home (scoring 8, conceding 6), while Guiseley AFC have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 9, conceding 4).