Dover vs Dorking Wanderers

Sat 17 Oct, 14:00

FT 3-2

AI Prediction

LOW 45%

Dover

Predicted Winner

6-3

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 3-2

Predicted: 6-3. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 5.93 - 2.96

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Dover last 5 at home: 2W-2D-1L (scored 10, conceded 9)

6 Dorking Wanderers last 5 away: 1W-4D-0L (scored 12, conceded 9)

7 H2H (3): Dorking Wanderers lead 1-0 (2D), avg 2.7 goals, BTTS 67%

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Dover with an estimated 45% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (5.93-2.96 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Dorking Wanderers, while the blended pick still favours Dover, so treat this one with extra caution. Dover have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 10, conceding 9), while Dorking Wanderers have won 1, drawn 4 and lost 0 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 12, conceding 9). Dorking Wanderers lead the head-to-head 1-0 (with 2 draws), averaging 2.7 goals per game with both teams scoring in 67% of meetings.