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Albania U19 vs Lithuania U19

Fri 2 Oct, 13:30

🎯 AI Prediction

MEDIUM 52%

Albania U19

Predicted Winner

4-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 Model above market fair probability by 12pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 4.44 - 1.98

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Albania U19 last 5 at home: 2W-2D-1L (scored 14, conceded 8)

6 Lithuania U19 last 5 away: 3W-0D-2L (scored 10, conceded 7)

7 H2H (1): Albania U19 lead 1-0 (0D), avg 5.0 goals, BTTS 100%

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Albania U19 with an estimated 52% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (4.44-1.98 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model sees more value here than the market does — its estimate for Albania U19 runs 12 points above the market's fair price. Albania U19 have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 14, conceding 8), while Lithuania U19 have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 10, conceding 7). Albania U19 lead the head-to-head 1-0 (with 0 draws), averaging 5.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 100% of meetings.