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Kettering Town vs Worcester City

Sat 3 Oct, 14:00

🎯 AI Prediction

MEDIUM 53%

Kettering Town

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 Model above market fair probability by 8pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.48 - 0.37

4 Kettering Town last 5 at home: 5W-0D-0L (scored 14, conceded 2)

5 Worcester City last 4 away: 0W-3D-1L (scored 4, conceded 6)

6 H2H (2): Kettering Town lead 1-0 (1D), avg 2.5 goals, BTTS 100%

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Kettering Town with an estimated 53% win probability, based on market odds and a Poisson xG model (1.48-0.37 goals). The model sees more value here than the market does — its estimate for Kettering Town runs 8 points above the market's fair price. Kettering Town have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 14, conceding 2), while Worcester City have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 4, conceding 6). Kettering Town lead the head-to-head 1-0 (with 1 draw), averaging 2.5 goals per game with both teams scoring in 100% of meetings.