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Vanuatu vs New Caledonia

Sun 27 Sept, 04:00

🎯 AI Prediction

MEDIUM 51%

New Caledonia

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 Poisson xG model: 1.48 - 2.22

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Vanuatu last 5 at home: 3W-1D-1L (scored 9, conceded 6)

5 New Caledonia last 4 away: 3W-1D-0L (scored 8, conceded 4)

6 H2H (4): New Caledonia lead 2-1 (1D), avg 3.0 goals, BTTS 50%

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours New Caledonia with an estimated 51% win probability, based on a Poisson xG model (1.48-2.22 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours New Caledonia, so treat this one with extra caution. Vanuatu have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 9, conceding 6), while New Caledonia have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 8, conceding 4). New Caledonia lead the head-to-head 2-1 (with 1 draw), averaging 3.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings.