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Colombia vs Paraguay

Sat 3 Oct, 00:00

🎯 AI Prediction

LOW 41%

Colombia

Predicted Winner

1-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.86 - 1.48

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Colombia last 5 at home: 4W-1D-0L (scored 7, conceded 1)

6 Paraguay last 5 away: 2W-1D-2L (scored 6, conceded 7)

7 H2H (10): Colombia lead 6-1 (3D), avg 2.0 goals, BTTS 50%

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Colombia with an estimated 41% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.86-1.48 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward Paraguay, while the blended pick still favours Colombia, so treat this one with extra caution. Colombia lead the head-to-head 6-1 (with 3 draws), averaging 2.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Colombia have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 7, conceding 1), while Paraguay have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 6, conceding 7).