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Uzbekistan vs Iran

Thu 24 Sept, 14:00

🎯 AI Prediction

LOW 40%

Iran

Predicted Winner

0-7

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.00 - 7.41

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Uzbekistan last 5 at home: 2W-2D-1L (scored 10, conceded 8)

6 Iran last 4 away: 1W-3D-0L (scored 6, conceded 1)

7 H2H (10): Iran lead 4-1 (5D), avg 1.5 goals, BTTS 30%

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Iran with an estimated 40% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.00-7.41 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Iran, so treat this one with extra caution. Iran lead the head-to-head 4-1 (with 5 draws), averaging 1.5 goals per game with both teams scoring in 30% of meetings. Uzbekistan have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 10, conceding 8), while Iran have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 6, conceding 1).