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Bolivia vs Paraguay

Sun 27 Sept, 20:30

🎯 AI Prediction

MEDIUM 59%

Paraguay

Predicted Winner

0-3

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.59 - 1.48

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Bolivia last 5 at home: 2W-0D-3L (scored 5, conceded 10)

6 Paraguay last 5 away: 2W-1D-2L (scored 5, conceded 7)

7 H2H (7): Paraguay lead 3-2 (2D), avg 3.0 goals, BTTS 57%

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Paraguay with an estimated 59% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.59-1.48 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Paraguay, so treat this one with extra caution. Bolivia have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 at home (scoring 5, conceding 10), while Paraguay have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 5, conceding 7). Paraguay lead the head-to-head 3-2 (with 2 draws), averaging 3.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 57% of meetings.