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China vs New Zealand

Sun 27 Sept, 11:35

🎯 AI Prediction

LOW 35%

New Zealand

Predicted Winner

0-1

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 2.59 - 0.00

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 China last 5 at home: 3W-1D-1L (scored 6, conceded 2)

6 New Zealand last 5 away: 0W-2D-3L (scored 4, conceded 11)

7 H2H (2): New Zealand lead 1-0 (1D), avg 1.5 goals, BTTS 50%

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours New Zealand with an estimated 34% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.59-0.00 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward China, while the blended pick still favours New Zealand, so treat this one with extra caution. China have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 6, conceding 2), while New Zealand have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 4, conceding 11). New Zealand lead the head-to-head 1-0 (with 1 draw), averaging 1.5 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings.