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China vs Palestine

Fri 2 Oct, 11:35

🎯 AI Prediction

LOW 35%

China

Predicted Winner

1-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market, poisson disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.74 - 1.11

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 China last 5 at home: 2W-1D-2L (scored 5, conceded 5)

6 Palestine last 4 away: 1W-3D-0L (scored 6, conceded 4)

7 H2H (2): China lead 1-0 (1D), avg 2.0 goals, BTTS 50%

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours China with an estimated 34% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.74-1.11 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Palestine, the Poisson model leans toward Palestine, while the blended pick still favours China, so treat this one with extra caution. China have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 5, conceding 5), while Palestine have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 6, conceding 4). China lead the head-to-head 1-0 (with 1 draw), averaging 2.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings.