Pafos vs Riga

Thu 22 Oct, 16:45

AI Prediction

LOW 49%

Pafos

Predicted Winner

3-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 2.72 - 1.81

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Pafos last 4 at home: 1W-2D-1L (scored 4, conceded 4)

6 Riga last 5 away: 5W-0D-0L (scored 9, conceded 3)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Pafos with an estimated 49% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.72-1.81 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Pafos, so treat this one with extra caution. Pafos have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 4 at home (scoring 4, conceding 4), while Riga have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 9, conceding 3).