HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax

Thu 15 Oct, 16:45

FT 2-1

AI Prediction

LOW 38%

Ajax

Predicted Winner

2-4

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 2-1

Predicted: 2-4. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 3.70 - 2.47

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 HNK Hajduk Split last 5 at home: 4W-1D-0L (scored 11, conceded 3)

6 Ajax last 4 away: 3W-1D-0L (scored 15, conceded 5)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Ajax with an estimated 38% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (3.70-2.47 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward HNK Hajduk Split, API-Football's model leans toward HNK Hajduk Split, while the blended pick still favours Ajax, so treat this one with extra caution. HNK Hajduk Split have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 11, conceding 3), while Ajax have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 15, conceding 5).