Brann vs Lincoln Red Imps FC

Thu 15 Oct, 19:00

FT 2-1

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 69%

Brann

Predicted Winner

3-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 2-1

Predicted: 3-0. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Model below market fair probability by 13pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.00 - 2.96

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Brann last 4 at home: 2W-0D-2L (scored 6, conceded 7)

6 Lincoln Red Imps FC last 4 away: 2W-1D-1L (scored 6, conceded 2)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Brann with an estimated 69% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.00-2.96 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The market is more confident in Brann than the model is — the blend sits 13 points below the market's fair price, making this a lower-conviction pick. Brann have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 4 at home (scoring 6, conceding 7), while Lincoln Red Imps FC have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 6, conceding 2).