Sturm Graz vs Marseille

Thu 22 Oct, 16:45

AI Prediction

LOW 37%

Marseille

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.00 - 0.00

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Sturm Graz last 5 at home: 3W-2D-0L (scored 12, conceded 4)

6 Marseille last 5 away: 2W-0D-3L (scored 8, conceded 9)

7 Sturm Graz without: N. Geyrhofer, L. Grgic (+18 more)

8 Marseille without: D. Cornelius, A. Koum Mbondo (+6 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Marseille with an estimated 37% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.00-0.00 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward Sturm Graz, while the blended pick still favours Marseille, so treat this one with extra caution. Sturm Graz have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 12, conceding 4), while Marseille have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 8, conceding 9). Sturm Graz without: N. Geyrhofer, L. Grgic (+18 more); Marseille without: D. Cornelius, A. Koum Mbondo (+6 more).