Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva

Thu 22 Oct, 16:45

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 61%

Union St. Gilloise

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Model below market fair probability by 10pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.40 - 0.70

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Union St. Gilloise last 5 at home: 3W-2D-0L (scored 13, conceded 2)

6 Hapoel Beer Sheva last 5 away: 3W-0D-2L (scored 9, conceded 8)

7 Union St. Gilloise without: A. Ait El Hadj, I. Hurtevent (+16 more)

8 Hapoel Beer Sheva without: D. Biton, Lucas Ventura (+8 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Union St. Gilloise with an estimated 61% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.40-0.70 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The market is more confident in Union St. Gilloise than the model is — the blend sits 10 points below the market's fair price, making this a lower-conviction pick. Union St. Gilloise have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 13, conceding 2), while Hapoel Beer Sheva have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 9, conceding 8). Union St. Gilloise without: A. Ait El Hadj, I. Hurtevent (+16 more); Hapoel Beer Sheva without: D. Biton, Lucas Ventura (+8 more).