Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha

Thu 22 Oct, 19:00

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 55%

Olympiakos Piraeus

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Model below market fair probability by 8pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Olympiakos Piraeus last 4 at home: 3W-0D-1L (scored 6, conceded 4)

5 Sparta Praha last 5 away: 3W-1D-1L (scored 13, conceded 3)

6 Olympiakos Piraeus without: L. Bailey, Clayton (+16 more)

7 Sparta Praha without: M. Andersen, E. Cobbaut (+16 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Olympiakos Piraeus with an estimated 55% win probability, based on market odds and API-Football's statistical model. The market is more confident in Olympiakos Piraeus than the model is — the blend sits 8 points below the market's fair price, making this a lower-conviction pick. Olympiakos Piraeus have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 4 at home (scoring 6, conceding 4), while Sparta Praha have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 13, conceding 3). Olympiakos Piraeus without: L. Bailey, Clayton (+16 more); Sparta Praha without: M. Andersen, E. Cobbaut (+16 more).