Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad

Thu 22 Oct, 19:00

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 53%

Real Sociedad

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.11 - 1.11

4 Lillestrom last 4 at home: 1W-1D-2L (scored 6, conceded 8)

5 Lillestrom without: C. Jebara, E. B. Garnas (+2 more)

6 Real Sociedad without: J. Aramburu, A. Odriozola (+6 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Real Sociedad with an estimated 53% win probability, based on market odds and a Poisson xG model (1.11-1.11 goals). Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward Lillestrom, while the blended pick still favours Real Sociedad, so treat this one with extra caution. Lillestrom have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 4 at home (scoring 6, conceding 8). Lillestrom without: C. Jebara, E. B. Garnas (+2 more); Real Sociedad without: J. Aramburu, A. Odriozola (+6 more).