Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia

Thu 15 Oct, 19:00

FT 3-1

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 67%

Jagiellonia

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 3-1

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 2.30 - 0.38

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Jagiellonia last 5 at home: 2W-0D-3L (scored 10, conceded 9)

5 Ararat-Armenia last 5 away: 3W-1D-1L (scored 10, conceded 4)

6 Jagiellonia without: D. Drachal, C. Polak (+10 more)

7 Ararat-Armenia without: P. Ayongo, P. Ayongo

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Jagiellonia with an estimated 67% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.30-0.38 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Jagiellonia have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 at home (scoring 10, conceding 9), while Ararat-Armenia have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 10, conceding 4). Jagiellonia without: D. Drachal, C. Polak (+10 more); Ararat-Armenia without: P. Ayongo, P. Ayongo.