Ferencvarosi TC vs Torreense

Thu 22 Oct, 16:45

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 62%

Ferencvarosi TC

Predicted Winner

3-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Model below market fair probability by 9pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.68 - 0.84

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Ferencvarosi TC last 4 at home: 2W-2D-0L (scored 9, conceded 4)

6 Torreense last 5 away: 2W-1D-2L (scored 7, conceded 6)

7 Ferencvarosi TC without: M. Bero, E. Botka (+16 more)

8 Torreense without: A. Baradji, A. Baradji

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Ferencvarosi TC with an estimated 62% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.68-0.84 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The market is more confident in Ferencvarosi TC than the model is — the blend sits 9 points below the market's fair price, making this a lower-conviction pick. Ferencvarosi TC have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 4 at home (scoring 9, conceding 4), while Torreense have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 6). Ferencvarosi TC without: M. Bero, E. Botka (+16 more); Torreense without: A. Baradji, A. Baradji.