Ferencvarosi TC vs Plzen

Thu 15 Oct, 19:00

FT 2-1

AI Prediction

LOW 48%

Ferencvarosi TC

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 2-1

Predicted: 2-1. Exact score correct!

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 5.75 - 0.00

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Ferencvarosi TC last 3 at home: 1W-2D-0L (scored 7, conceded 3)

5 Plzen last 4 away: 1W-1D-2L (scored 4, conceded 5)

6 H2H (5): Plzen lead 2-1 (2D), avg 2.0 goals, BTTS 40%

7 Ferencvarosi TC without: M. Bero, E. Botka (+14 more)

8 Plzen without: P. Adu, V. Jemelka (+6 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Ferencvarosi TC with an estimated 48% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (5.75-0.00 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Ferencvarosi TC have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 3 at home (scoring 7, conceding 3), while Plzen have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 4, conceding 5). Plzen lead the head-to-head 2-1 (with 2 draws), averaging 2.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 40% of meetings. Ferencvarosi TC without: M. Bero, E. Botka (+14 more); Plzen without: P. Adu, V. Jemelka (+6 more).