Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz

Thu 15 Oct, 19:00

FT 3-0

AI Prediction

HIGH 70%

Bournemouth

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 3-0

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Model below market fair probability by 10pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Bournemouth last 4 at home: 1W-2D-1L (scored 7, conceded 4)

5 Sturm Graz last 4 away: 2W-0D-2L (scored 7, conceded 7)

6 Bournemouth without: M. Aarons, J. Araujo (+18 more)

7 Sturm Graz without: N. Geyrhofer, L. Grgic (+20 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Bournemouth with an estimated 70% win probability, based on market odds and API-Football's statistical model. The market is more confident in Bournemouth than the model is — the blend sits 10 points below the market's fair price, making this a lower-conviction pick. Bournemouth have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 4 at home (scoring 7, conceding 4), while Sturm Graz have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 7). Bournemouth without: M. Aarons, J. Araujo (+18 more); Sturm Graz without: N. Geyrhofer, L. Grgic (+20 more).