Beşiktaş vs Crystal Palace

Thu 22 Oct, 19:00

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 60%

Beşiktaş

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Model above market fair probability by 16pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 4.72 - 0.35

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Beşiktaş last 4 at home: 4W-0D-0L (scored 15, conceded 4)

6 Crystal Palace last 4 away: 1W-1D-2L (scored 5, conceded 10)

7 Beşiktaş without: C. Keles, O. Kokcu (+4 more)

8 Crystal Palace without: C. Doucoure, Z. Gozo (+14 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Beşiktaş with an estimated 60% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (4.72-0.35 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model sees more value here than the market does — its estimate for Beşiktaş runs 16 points above the market's fair price. Beşiktaş have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 4 at home (scoring 15, conceding 4), while Crystal Palace have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 5, conceding 10). Beşiktaş without: C. Keles, O. Kokcu (+4 more); Crystal Palace without: C. Doucoure, Z. Gozo (+14 more).