Benfica vs Celtic

Thu 15 Oct, 19:00

FT 4-1

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 67%

Benfica

Predicted Winner

3-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 4-1

Predicted: 3-0. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Model below market fair probability by 9pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Benfica last 4 at home: 4W-0D-0L (scored 10, conceded 3)

5 Celtic last 5 away: 3W-0D-2L (scored 6, conceded 9)

6 H2H (2): Benfica lead 1-0 (1D), avg 1.5 goals, BTTS 50%

7 Benfica without: D. Banjaqui, E. Barrenechea (+4 more)

8 Celtic without: C. Carter-Vickers, C. Duran (+12 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Benfica with an estimated 67% win probability, based on market odds and API-Football's statistical model. The market is more confident in Benfica than the model is — the blend sits 9 points below the market's fair price, making this a lower-conviction pick. Benfica have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 4 at home (scoring 10, conceding 3), while Celtic have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 6, conceding 9). Benfica lead the head-to-head 1-0 (with 1 draw), averaging 1.5 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Benfica without: D. Banjaqui, E. Barrenechea (+4 more); Celtic without: C. Carter-Vickers, C. Duran (+12 more).