Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar

Thu 22 Oct, 16:45

AI Prediction

LOW 48%

AZ Alkmaar

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.70 - 0.00

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Ararat-Armenia last 4 at home: 2W-1D-1L (scored 6, conceded 5)

6 AZ Alkmaar last 5 away: 2W-1D-2L (scored 7, conceded 7)

7 Ararat-Armenia without: P. Ayongo, Z. Banjaqui (+2 more)

8 AZ Alkmaar without: J. Hornkamp, S. Resink (+8 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours AZ Alkmaar with an estimated 48% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.70-0.00 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward Ararat-Armenia, while the blended pick still favours AZ Alkmaar, so treat this one with extra caution. Ararat-Armenia have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 4 at home (scoring 6, conceding 5), while AZ Alkmaar have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 7). Ararat-Armenia without: P. Ayongo, Z. Banjaqui (+2 more); AZ Alkmaar without: J. Hornkamp, S. Resink (+8 more).