Villarreal vs Napoli

Tue 13 Oct, 19:00

FT 3-1

AI Prediction

LOW 42%

Villarreal

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 3-1

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

3 Villarreal last 3 at home: 1W-0D-2L (scored 6, conceded 6)

4 Napoli last 3 away: 1W-1D-1L (scored 5, conceded 4)

5 H2H (5): even, 1D, avg 2.4 goals, BTTS 40%

6 Villarreal without: T. Buchanan, N. Pepe (+2 more)

7 Napoli without: Alisson Santos, F. Anguissa (+12 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Villarreal with an estimated 42% win probability, based on market odds and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Villarreal have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 3 at home (scoring 6, conceding 6), while Napoli have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 3 away from home (scoring 5, conceding 4). The head-to-head is even (2 win each, 1 draws in their last 5), averaging 2.4 goals per game with both teams scoring in 40% of meetings. Villarreal without: T. Buchanan, N. Pepe (+2 more); Napoli without: Alisson Santos, F. Anguissa (+12 more).