Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain

Tue 3 Nov, 20:00

FT 0-6

AI Prediction

LOW 45%

Paris Saint Germain

Predicted Winner

2-3

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 0-6

Predicted: 2-3. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 2.93 - 1.96

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Villarreal last 5 at home: 2W-1D-2L (scored 7, conceded 5)

6 Paris Saint Germain last 5 away: 5W-0D-0L (scored 15, conceded 5)

7 Villarreal without: I. Akhomach, J. Foyth (+4 more)

8 Paris Saint Germain without: O. Dembele, K. Kvaratskhelia (+6 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Paris Saint Germain with an estimated 45% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.93-1.96 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward Villarreal, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Paris Saint Germain, so treat this one with extra caution. Villarreal have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 7, conceding 5), while Paris Saint Germain have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 15, conceding 5). Villarreal without: I. Akhomach, J. Foyth (+4 more); Paris Saint Germain without: O. Dembele, K. Kvaratskhelia (+6 more).